정치

여당은 ‘세대교체’ + ‘핵심엘리트 : 성대 +고대 엘리트연합’로 정권재창출해야 한다.

바다를건너다2016-01-01목록으로 건너뛰기

<p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">여당은 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">‘</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">세대교체</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">’ + ‘</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">핵심엘리트 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">: </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">성대 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">+</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">고대 엘리트연합</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">’</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">로 정권재창출해야 한다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">나는 두 경우를 본다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">오세훈 대권후보에 황교안 총리가 러닝메이트식으로 가거나</span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">아니면</span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">황교안 대권후보에 오세훈이 러닝메이트식으로 가는 경우다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">너무 뻔한데 현역 의원들로 해당 이해당사자가 절대로 싫어하는 게 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">.</span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">황교안씨보다 연장자 정치인은 이번 공천에서 결코 많이 생존해서 안된다는 거</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">생존하면 생존하는 숫자만큼 정권 재창출 가능성이 희박한 거</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">일단 총선에서 오세훈이 어느 지역구든지 승리하면 지지율 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">25% </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">이상으로 급반등한다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">그리고</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">, </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">그 이후 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">10</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">개월을 어떻게 버티느냐에 따라서</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">, </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">내년 대선후보 경선이 거의 판가름 난다고 봐도 지나치지 않다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">총선만 끝나면 김무성은 여당에서 대권 유망주자에서 아래로 밀려난다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">10</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">개월을 못 버티고 야권에 상처 입고 버벅거리면</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">, </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">최종 대권 후보는 황교안 총리가 될 가능성이 높다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. 10</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">개월 내내 지지율을 강보합쯤으로 유지하면 대선 후보 경선 때는 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">40% </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">가까운 응집력으로 될 가능성도 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">25% </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">이상의 여권 단독 톱이 되고</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">, </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">사냥 공세가 빚어질 때 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">10</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">개월 정도를 유지하는 것은 그 누구도 콘크리트층을 갖지 못한 상황에서 대단히 도전적인 일이다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">야권의 공세에 운지하여 올 연말쯤에 고만고만한 상태면</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">, </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">최종 대선후보는 황교안 총리가 될 가능성이 높다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">아직은 어떻게 돼야 한다 장담하긴 이르다</span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">확고한 것은</span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">세대교체와 박근혜 정부와 이명박 정부의 핵심엘리트층의 단결이 중요하다는 것이다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:함초롬바탕;mso-font-width:100%;letter-spacing:0pt;mso-text-raise:0pt;font-size:12.0pt;">. </span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0" style="text-indent:10.0pt;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;font-size:12.0pt;"><span style="font-family:함초롬바탕;font-size:12.0pt;">   <o></o></span></p><p class="0"><span style="font-family:한컴바탕;">   <o></o></span></p>

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